FP Markets

I intend to keep the following post concise and to the point. As exhibited on the daily timeframe of ETH/USD (Ethereum versus the US dollar), price recently shook hands with support from US$2,332. Not only does this base serve as a historically significant barrier, but it also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average at US$2,305 and a trendline support, extended from the low of US$1,381.Given the current support in play, I am closely monitoring the overhead decision point zone at US$2,571 – US$2,450. It was within this area that a ‘decision’ was made to whipsaw through the noted support area. Consequently, if price engulfs the said decision point, this could unearth a short-term bullish scenario towards resistance at US$2,813. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Monthly bullish outside candleVersus the US dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to snap a two-month decline and pencil in a bullish outside candle on the monthly chart (textbook engulfing candles focus on the candle’s real bodies rather than upper/lower wicks). Additionally, it is important to observe that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to break the neckline of a double-top pattern, circling above the 50.00 level and indicating bullish interest.Daily support calls for attentionAcross the page on the daily timeframe, since coming within a stone’s throw of testing support at US$73,575, BTC/USD bulls have been on the offensive. Running above the 200- and 50-day simple moving averages at US$81,139 and US$86,425, respectively, as well as trendline resistance (taken from the all-time high of US$109,580) and resistance from US$88,622 (now possible support), this has unearthed the widely watched US$100,000 barrier as a possible upside target. With monthly flow on the verge of establishing a bullish outside candle, and scope for additional outperformance evident on the daily chart to at least US$100,000, a retest of US$88,622 as support could prompt a bullish scenario. Consequently, a possible downside move in the short term might be on the table before targeting US$100,000 as per the red arrows.H1 ascending channel in viewOn the H1 chart, price action has been carving out an ascending channel since last week, taken from US$91,713 and US$94,676. This has helped identify slowing momentum, visible through price action, which was unable to reach the upper channel on two occasions (red circles). Decreased appetite for higher levels can also be observed through the RSI trending lower since hitting highs of 82.00. Given the above chart studies, I feel a breakout beneath the current H1 channel would help reinforce the possibility of downside towards at least H1 support at US$89,677, conveniently sited nearby daily support mentioned above at US$88,622. And, assuming a move lower to the said support area, I would then expect bulls to attempt to make a stand and aim at higher levels: at least US$100,000. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Safe-haven assets caught a strong bid in recent trading, directing Spot Gold to all-time highs of US$3,220/troy ounce versus the US dollar (XAU/USD). The shift towards safe-haven markets was fuelled by softer demand for the USD as markets fled dollar assets, as well as escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Unsurprisingly, the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) also attracted substantial bids, with the USD/CHF pair notching up losses of nearly 4.0% – its largest one-day drop since 2015! Monthly Resistance and Oversold ConditionsSeveral desks are reportedly eyeing US$3,500 as the next upside objective for Gold; however, the monthly chart reveals it is considerably overbought according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). You will note the RSI has remained within overbought territory since mid-2024 and recently touched gloves with familiar resistance between 87.31 and 82.20. This area boasts historical significance from as far back as 2006, and each time the Index has approached the resistance, a correction/pause typically followed in the yellow metal. Consequently, it raises the question about whether buying is set to moderate/pause at the monthly resistance area between US$3,264 and US$3,187 (made up of 1.618% and 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratios, respectively).Daily Demand Zone; Dip-Buying?Meanwhile, on the daily chart, price action came within a stone’s throw of testing support from US$2,942 at the beginning of the week before rallying to all-time highs noted above. What is interesting from a technical perspective is that the move left behind a demand area at US$3,000-US$3,058, which, in my opinion, represents a key technical zone. With Gold firmly entrenched in a strong uptrend, dip-buyers could emerge from the daily demand area if a correction occurs. That said, given technical indicators on the monthly chart suggesting buyers could pump the brakes, any dip-buying activity would likely be approached with caution. Confirmation – such as a bullish candlestick signal or supporting price action on lower time frames – might be required before pulling the trigger. However, any movement below the mentioned demand area signals bearish strength from the monthly resistance zone, and potentially opens the door to short-term selling opportunities, targeting daily support at US$2,942, closely followed by support at US$2,865, and possibly US$2,790. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Since BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) rebounded from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) earlier this month at US$78,111, speculative bullish interest has been uninspiring. Further DownsideAs far as I can see, the major crypto pairing demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until it reaches support from US$68,926 on the monthly timeframe (I also noted this in previous analysis), which (somewhat) helps explain why technical demand from the 200-day SMA could be lacking. Another technical observation supporting the lacklustre bullish showing is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), recently exiting overbought territory and fast approaching the neckline of a double-top pattern on the monthly chart, extended from the low of 60.44. A break beyond this line highlights the RSI’s 50.00 centreline threshold as a possible downside target. Adding to this, the RSI on the daily chart may have rebounded from oversold territory (forming a possible double-bottom), but remains south of 50.00 and is shaking hands with resistance around 45.46.Monthly/Daily Support Area Warrants AttentionWhile I am not saying that a move to the upside won’t be seen, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside, at least targeting space below the 200-day SMA at daily support from US$73,575. So, for me, the playbook here will be watching for possible fading opportunities at the underside of the daily range between US$108,396 and US$91,591 (which happens to converge closely with the 50-day SMA at US$93,608 and trendline resistance, extended from the all-time high of US$109.580). Alternatively, we could see price sell-off at current levels and aim for the noted daily support. It is this level, coupled with monthly support mentioned above at US$68,926, that I expect to see bulls attempt to make a show. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Versus the US dollar, spot gold (XAU/USD) rallied strongly in the early hours of the US session and is now up 1.5% on the day. Currently trading at US$2,977 and refreshing record highs, the precious metal is on the cusp of bumping heads with the widely watched US$3,000 level.Gold’s Uptrend Remains IntactAlthough Gold’s multi-year uptrend is not ensured to continue, from a technical perspective, the trend remains unbroken until demonstrated otherwise. And, right now, buyers are certainly in the driving seat. Some analysts use moving averages to indicate a trend change, while others use technical indicators; I prefer good old-fashioned price action to help validate a trend reversal, and I have seen limited evidence thus far.Bulls Targeting US$3,000?The daily chart shows that price action is fast approaching the US$3,000 barrier, with a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio circling just above at US$3,002. While this Fibonacci projection ratio is essentially an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish structure, I tend only to consider these patterns in downtrends, employing them to help confirm and fade a pullback. However, that is not to say that they cannot be used as profit objectives/potential resistance levels in uptrends. Consequently, given possible negative divergence from the Relative Strength Index, the US$3,000 area could prompt profit-taking.With the above in mind, until the yellow metal reaches US$3,000, this could open the door to short-term bullish scenarios. The H1 decision point area at US$2,966-US$2,971 is a zone I will watch closely for bulls to make a show from in the event price tests this space. Interestingly, this base is accompanied by a H1 channel resistance-turned potential resistance, extended from the high of US$2,922. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill

Several themes are at play right now, which contributed to a selloff across risk assets last week. Influenced by political shenanigans (tariffs) and the Bybit exchange breach, this sent Bitcoin (BTC) 17.5% lower versus the US dollar (USD) by the close of trading on Friday.Monthly Chart: Room to Explore Deeper WatersThere is not much to talk about on the monthly chart except to remind ourselves that last year wrapped up rejecting the underside of a 100% projection ratio at US$106,610. Despite January's gain (9.0%), February concluded considerably lower and, as far as I can see, demonstrates scope to continue exploring south until support from US$68,926. Daily Chart: Dragonfly Doji Ahead of 200-Day SMAOn the daily timeframe, the latest reveals that with the aid of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) delivering resistance at US$97,092, price ruptured the lower edge of a range that has been in play since December 2024 between US$91,591 and US$108,396. This breakout led BTC/USD to within touching distance of the 200-day SMA at US$76,811 on Friday, finishing the week in the shape of a dragonfly doji (a bullish candlestick signal similar to a hammer pattern). While this candle pattern/SMA combination (and neighbouring daily support from US$73,575) could trigger a recovery (profit taking) on the daily timeframe, the room to discover deeper waters on the monthly timeframe toward support at US$68,926 places bulls in a questionable position at current levels and may see daily flow push southbound. Consequently, should the major crypto pair retest the underside of the daily range (see red arrows) before hitting the noted daily supports (and monthly support), this may be viewed as a sell-on-rally scenario. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill

From the daily timeframe, SOL/USD (Solana versus the US dollar) recently connected with support from US$163.90, aided by the H1 timeframe chalking up an inverted head and shoulders pattern. With the formation’s neckline consumed (taken from the high of 107.88), further outperformance towards the pattern’s profit objective at 179.90 could be seen.Bulls remain in control and appear to be closing in on the pattern's profit objective - AHThe pattern's profit target was essentially hit - AH

According to technical studies on the daily chart, Bitcoin versus the US dollar (BTC/USD) is now consolidating between support from US$91,591 and US$108,396. US$100,000 remains a widely watched barrier within the consolidation, along with the 50-day SMA at US$97,615. Despite the ranging action, BTC/USD is entrenched in a bullish trend with a clear upside bias. Consequently, should price action gain a foothold off US$100,000 as support, all-time highs could be on the table.

Since early December 2024, BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) has traded tentatively around US$100,000. What is interesting from a technical perspective is the formation of a potential (complex) head and shoulders top pattern (left shoulders at US$99,806 and US$104.047; head at US$108.396; possible right shoulders at US$99,887 and US$102.750). Were price action to engulf the pattern’s neckline (taken from the low of US$90,731), this could send the major Crypto pairing as far south as support from US$71,922.

With the daily price of spot gold (XAU/USD) again rejecting resistance from US$2,716, this unearths a possible AB=CD harmonic support zone at US$2,473. This support is also complemented by Fibonacci support from 38.2% and 61.8% retracement ratios at US$2,479 and US$2,475, respectively. In addition, a 1.272% extension ratio at US$2,488 and a clear-cut uptrend is seen. Consequently, although this pattern may not be completed this year, it is one that many will likely consider adding to the watchlist for 2025.